Release Notes: COVID-19 U.S. State by State Infographic – July 7, 2020
Document Link: Pier Digital COVID-19 Info Project V18.pdf
Media coverage the last week or so, at least in my area, has made it clear that COVID in the United States is accelerating like never before. Every day, record case numbers are recorded across the country, and hospitals are filling to capacity in the hardest-hit states. Will we stop the spread? Can we stop the spread? the news has asked.
But something doesn’t add up. In the midst of such a catastrophe, why did case numbers drop this weekend?
There are two scenarios that seem the most likely to me:
1. The current spike started (very approximately) a couple of weeks ago, and coverage of it followed quickly. This successfully conveyed the urgency of the situation, and people resumed distancing measures in response. Now, weeks later, we are beginning to see the effects of their safer behavior.
2. Due to the holiday, fewer testing sites were open, fewer people wanted to go to the hospital, fewer people felt like interrupting their weekend, etc. During the upcoming week, there will be an influx of cases that didn’t get reported over the weekend.
The good news is, it won’t take long to confirm either one of these explanations. Some predictions of “I think there will be a spike after x event” can’t be evaluated until two weeks later when the spike either happens or doesn’t. This, however, is predicting the next direction of a trend that has already begun.
As mentioned, if #1 is the answer, then cases will continue to drop in the hardest-hit states. If #2 is the answer, then there will be an immediate spike in nearly every state this week (corresponding with the cases that would’ve normally shown up over the weekend), and states will return to their previous trends after that, rising or falling.
What does the pattern look like as it stands? There was a widespread drop in new cases reported this weekend. This was true in states that had previously had very steep spikes (e.g. Georgia, Montana, Tennessee) as well as in states that weren’t doing so badly (e.g. Colorado, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania) or even excellently (Connecticut). That indicates to me that it wasn’t caused by something policy-related, given that two weeks ago, reopenings hadn’t been halted, and the trajectories of the states I’ve mentioned were wildly divergent. Even in areas where new cases didn’t drop, their rate of increase slowed considerably. This, again, was true in both hard-hit areas (South Carolina, Texas) and in less dire ones (Minnesota, Wyoming).
To me, the fact that the weekend drop was not restricted to hard-hit states seems like evidence favoring scenario #1. People in the states that were doing well had no reason to be scared into staying safe because they were already doing it. The 4th of July weekend, however, happened everywhere, so less testing in every state makes more sense since we see new cases drop across the board.
I hope I’m wrong, because this spike in cases is very severe, and it’s worrying that the country doesn’t seem to have things under great control. However, I’m encouraged by the fact that over the weekend, the governors of Arizona, Florida, and Texas have publicly and formally attributed the spike to the relaxation of distancing policies. My hope is that this can reduce the politicization of the virus, so people can focus on public health independently from the upcoming election. In addition, the more public recognition there is that distancing works, the greater the pressure will be for those who haven’t implemented it to do so.
Pier Digital COVID-19 Additional Resources
For more COVID-19 Resources and Insights, check out Pier Digital’s Podcast – Episode 4 – With an interview with Dr. Shakthi Kumar, Founder and CEO of Beacon Health Sciences in Summit, New Jersey about how to reopen business safely during COVID-19. Beacon Health Sciences is a board-certified medicine and multi-specialty practice in Internal Medicine, Pulmonology, Infectious Diseases, Metabolic Health, Clinical Nutrition, Genomics and Pediatrics that has been in the frontline providing COVID-19 related services, including free care to over 800 first responders in various communities.
Dr. Shakthi Kumar has over 20 years of experience in healthcare and patient wellness. He was recently awarded “Most Innovative Service Provider” by Health Network.
