Release Notes: COVID-19 U.S. State by State Infographic – July 10, 2020
Document Link: Pier Digital COVID-19 Info Project V19.pdf
For the last couple of weeks, the US has been leading the world in new cases, by a sizable margin. It has gotten to the point where individual states are recording more cases than entire countries, including ones that had been considered hard-hit. Today, I thought it might be interesting to look deeper into that comparison, and see which countries have similar trends to various states.
New York: Spain
New Jersey: Italy
This one is pretty straightforward. All of these areas saw extraordinarily high numbers early, gained something of a reputation as a warning to the world (“we don’t want to be like _”), but have since done a good job slowing the spread. This is probably because since they’ve seen firsthand how bad COVID can get, it’s widely understood that people need to take it seriously, or risk overwhelming the hospital systems for a second time.
California: Philippines
These two regions both showed a slow initial growth. Cases were clearly rising, but not exponentially, and they weren’t the attention-getting hotspots. But since then, particularly in the last few weeks, control has been slipping away. Daily cases are at least double what they were three weeks ago. The flat curve at the beginning was a prelude to the real challenge, which would coincide with what, for the rest of the world, is a second wave.
Rhode Island: Denmark
As part of the northeast consortium, Rhode Island has gotten their cases under control lately. This closely mirrors Denmark, which also continues to see record lows. Unlike their hard-hit European counterparts, Denmark’s curve has been flattened since the very beginning. There was still an early surge in cases, but it was broader than it is tall and didn’t see as explosive initial growth. The same is true of Rhode Island when compared to New York and New Jersey. In one final statistical quirk, in addition to having similar case trends, neither Rhode Island nor Denmark report cases on weekends, instead of combining them with the Monday total.
Pennsylvania: Japan
These areas experienced their first wave in March and early April, before getting things under control. That is hardly a unique story. But very recently, there has been a significant uptick in cases that can’t be explained as just noise. It’s a trend, and a second wave to be specific. This wave, however, is still small. These are not the Floridas of the world. The best way to explain the similarity is that Japan and PA are at a tipping point. Sure, the second wave doesn’t look like much, yet. But they need to take note of this warning sign and slow the spread down again, or else they risk becoming like…
Louisiana: Israel
At first, it seemed like they were doing so well. Yes, they were hard-hit initially, but like other hard-hit regions, they recognized the severity of the situation and flattened the curve. Unlike those other regions, this was only temporary, and cases have skyrocketed once again. A lot of the states that aren’t in great shape right now (Arizona, Florida, California, etc.) didn’t have as much of a first wave. Many states that were most impacted early (New York, New Jersey, etc.) haven’t yet had a second wave. Louisiana has had/is having both. And just like Israel, the second wave looks like it could be worse than the first.
Hawaii: New Zealand
An island territory sees low case numbers, in large part due to its isolation. It brings cases down to nearly zero, and it seems to be on the brink of eradicating the virus. But recently, there has been a… “second wave” doesn’t seem like the right way to put it. After all, these are still very low numbers, which other areas would be ecstatic to have. There are just enough new cases to serve as a reminder that maybe the virus isn’t quite as gone as it had seemed.
Pier Digital COVID-19 Additional Resources
For more COVID-19 Resources and Insights, check out Pier Digital’s Podcast – Episode 4 – With an interview with Dr. Shakthi Kumar, Founder and CEO of Beacon Health Sciences in Summit, New Jersey about how to reopen business safely during COVID-19. Beacon Health Sciences is a board-certified medicine and multi-specialty practice in Internal Medicine, Pulmonology, Infectious Diseases, Metabolic Health, Clinical Nutrition, Genomics and Pediatrics that has been in the frontline providing COVID-19 related services, including free care to over 800 first responders in various communities.
Dr. Shakthi Kumar has over 20 years of experience in healthcare and patient wellness. He was recently awarded “Most Innovative Service Provider” by Health Network.
