Release Notes: COVID-19 U.S. State by State Infographic – July 2, 2020
Document Link: Pier Digital COVID-19 Info Project V17.pdf
The July 4th holiday weekend is approaching. Much like Memorial Day, people will likely get together for family gatherings, fireworks, cookouts, etc. Some people will do this safely. Others will not. We know that a huge spike followed Memorial Day. Can that be prevented this weekend?
A better question is probably whether it WILL be prevented as opposed to whether it CAN be. At this point it’s clear that distancing measures, whether they’re imposed by a government or adopted by choice, are effective. In any case, there are a few key differences between this weekend and Memorial Day weekend that make me suspect we as a country will do a little better this time around. Of course, that isn’t written in stone.
The first factor is the trajectory of current case trends. Before Memorial Day, new cases in many places were beginning to stabilize, which is one of the things that encouraged the most recent loosening of restrictions. Things are much more severe this time. Using 7-day averages, cases in the US are up 38% in a week. Those who thought we were in the clear in late May are certainly not getting the same message this time, unless they’re specifically seeking out what they wish were true.
Some states are reversing or pausing their opening measures. However, that started relatively recently, and isn’t as widespread as the initial shutdowns in March. They certainly aren’t restricting contact to the same extent, especially in the states that had delivered the “all clear” by opening early, such as Texas (+45%) and Georgia (+59%). However, it at least shows the direction policy is going: things are being closed rather than reopened. Hopefully this will help bridge the partisan divide, since state governments controlled by both parties are recognizing the severity of the current situation.
Another encouraging sign is what we now know about mask use. At first, there was some confusion regarding how effective face masks are at stopping the spread, with the CDC initially not recommending them. It reversed that statement and began recommending masks on April 3rd. For context, New York’s peak was around April 10th, meaning that with an estimated incubation time of two weeks, the state began to get things under control shortly before the new mask policy. As a result, it’s possible that with distancing and mask use combined, the current spike can be stopped even more quickly, should states adopt those measures.
This weekend, we have the chance to learn from what went wrong around Memorial Day. Governments that have halted reopening are reinforcing the message that we should be taking this more seriously. Only time will tell what happens, but between messaging, policy, and general public knowledge of current trends, there is certainly reason to believe people may be more careful. We know we have the ability.
Pier Digital COVID-19 Additional Resources
For more COVID-19 Resources and Insights, check out Pier Digital’s Podcast – Episode 4 – With an interview with Dr. Shakthi Kumar, Founder and CEO of Beacon Health Sciences in Summit, New Jersey about how to reopen business safely during COVID-19. Beacon Health Sciences is a board-certified medicine and multi-specialty practice in Internal Medicine, Pulmonology, Infectious Diseases, Metabolic Health, Clinical Nutrition, Genomics and Pediatrics that has been in the frontline providing COVID-19 related services, including free care to over 800 first responders in various communities.
Dr. Shakthi Kumar has over 20 years of experience in healthcare and patient wellness. He was recently awarded “Most Innovative Service Provider” by Health Network.
